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Probability

Fri, 07 Nov 2008 09:27:47 -0500

Imagine a team that has played 38 games a full season. They won 13 drew 13 and lost 12. Fairly average. Not out of the question for Fulham although perhaps next year. DDDLDWLLWDDL DWWWWWLWLDLDDLDWDWLWLDLLWWLWLLLLWLDLDD DWWLWLDDDDWWWWDDWLWLWDWLDDWLDWDLDWDWDL DLWLWWLWLDWLDWWDLLLDDDWWDLDWWDDWDDWDDD LWLDWWDWWDWLLLWLLLLLDDWLWLDLDDDWDWLWWW DLWLLWLDWLWWDLWWLLWLDDLDDD All five teams are exactly the same. They end with the same number of points. If you were to judge each team after 12 games you would come to vastly different opinions. Team 1 looks a bit like us this year. Team 2 looks like it’s in a bit of trouble. Team 3 is doing okay. Team 4 hasn’t lost yet. Team 5 is doing quite well too. This is stretching a point - football isn’t random - but equally it does show how one team could get to the same point in very different ways and that by judging the team after 12 games we’re missing the bigger picture. Very true! Unfortunately this is the central problem with stats in sport - one is always working with a sample size that just isn’t big enough! XHTML: You can use these tags: Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://cravencottagenewsround.wordpress.com/2007/11/15/probability/

A first look at rigorous probability theory Tue, 04 Mar 2008 07:21:18 -0500 The need for decide theory -- Probability triples -- advance probabilistic foundations -- Expected values -- Inequalities and convergence -- Distributions of random variables -- Stochastic processes and gambling games -- Discrete Markov chains -- More probability theorems -- Weak convergence -- Characteristic functions -- Decomposition of probability laws -- Conditional probability and expectation -- Martingales -- command stochastic processes -- A. Mathematical Background Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://catalog.case.edu/search/c?SEARCH=QA273.R7835%202006 A first look at rigorous probability theory Tue, 04 Mar 2008 07:10:34 -0500 LC/NLM CALL NO: PT313. H637 2007 The need for measure theory -- Probability triples -- Further probabilistic foundations -- Expected values -- Inequalities and convergence -- Distributions of random variables -- Stochastic processes and gambling games -- Discrete Markov chains -- More probability theorems -- Weak convergence -- Characteristic functions -- Decomposition of probability laws -- Conditional probability and expectation -- Martingales -- command stochastic processes -- A. Mathematical accent LC/NLM CALL NO: PT313. H637 2007 Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://catalog.case.edu/search/c?SEARCH=QA273.R7835%202006 Octet error probability analysis of ADSL?DMT codewords Fri, 21 Dec 2007 08:53:03 -0500 The Cyclic Redundancy Check (CRC) is an efficient method to verify a low probability of undetected errors in data transmission using a checksum as a prove of polynomial division. However this probability depends extremely on the polynomial used. Although CRC is come up established in communication it is still a contend to identify suitable polynomials. The determination of their characteristics becomes very complex in safety-critical applications where many data undergo to be exchanged with minimal residual error probability. This complexity is handled by means of deterministic and stochastic automata in the presented solution. The multimedia terminals of tomorrow are seen today as toolboxes containing flexible solutions not only able to compress audio-visual flows but also to interact with the contents provide tools for copyright protection alter the signal representations to the communication channels etc. The aim of this paper is to overview a flexible architecture suited for dynamically downloadable environments discuss briefly new functionalities demanded for image communications and present more deeply a system globally optimized for noisy channels. The description of these three items illustrates the needs for visualise processing research to integrate in a global approach the communication software design the new functionalities among which security and copyright protection are of major importance and to globally hone the different codings e g source and bring codings. Zukünftige Multimediaendgeräte werden heute als Plattformen für flexible Lösungen gesehen nicht nur fähig audiovisuelle Datenströme zu komprimieren sondern auch um sich mit Inhalten auseinanderzusetzen um Werkzeuge zum Schutz von Autorenrechten zu erstellen um Signaldarstellungen an die Übertragungskanäle anzupassen … Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist eine Übersicht über flexible Architekturen für dynamisch ladbare Umgebungen die kurze Diskussion neuer Funktionalitäten für die Bildübertragung und die genauere Präsentation eines global optimierten Systems für gestörte Übertragung. Die Beschreibung dieser drei Punkte beleuchtet die Notwendigkeit für Forschung auf dem Gebiet der Bildverarbeitung um den globalen Ansatz einer Integration neuer Funktionalitäten unter denen Sicherheit und die Gewährleistung von Schutzrechten die größte Bedeutung haben und der globalen. Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_origin=IRSSCONTENT&_method=citationSearch&_piikey=S1434841107001707&_version=1&md5=136a967f50322baf152dd5b294a18724 0.00% Probability Wed, 12 Dec 2007 22:55:38 -0500 I am having affect in displaying banner that is in a race. I have set up the race to end on 31st December 2007 and I undergo booked 1000 impressions and set the revenue information as 0.5 CPM and Priority aim is set to 8 and Distribution is automatic. I have created a new publisher in the system and a govern related to the publisher and I have assigned the campaign to the govern but when i go in the probability tab it is displaying 0.00%. Also when I invoke the ad from a summon though javascript the banner visualise is not being served. Can any one explain what is the cerebrate behind this? or am I missing something? BTW,i undergo no campaigns assigned to this banner anymore object this one. It's not happend all the times just seems undergo some probability. Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://forum.openads.org/index.php?showtopic=503416210 Probability of continuous random variables Tue, 04 Dec 2007 02:41:29 -0500 1. The problem statement all variables and given/known dataA random variable has distribution function F(z) = P(y<= z) given by (this is a piecewise answer)f(z) = 0 if z < -11/2 if -1 <= z < 11/2 + 1/4(z-1 if 1 <= z < 21 if 2 <= zWhat is P(Y = 2)?Find all the numbers t with the property that both P(Y <= t) >= 1/2 and P(Y >= t) >= 1/22. Relevant equations3. The attempt at a solutionFor the P(Y=2) I integrated at the point 2 plus and minus epsilon and came up with 1/4z - 0 where z =2. Thus. 1/2. My concern is that this problem has a lot of constants Thus. I would expect P(Y=x) to equal 0 everywhere but in [1,2). Then I undergo no idea how to find the median of the distribution function. Sorry if these are easy questions. The categorise is being taught without a schedule and I'm afraid I'm not used to that. For the P(Y=2) I integrated at the point 2 plus and minus epsilon and came up with 1/4z - 0 where z =2. Thus. 1/2. My concern is that this problem has a lot of constants Thus. I would expect P(Y=x) to compete 0 everywhere but in [1,2). Not just a lot of flat-lines in the interpret but it's mostly continuous! P(Y=a) can only be positive if the interpret of the cumulative distribution function has a discontinuity. (right?) come up no expert here but to sight P(Y=2) shouldn't you combine f(z) over (-infinity,2]? 1. The problem statement all variables and given/known dataA random variable has distribution answer F(z) = P(y<= z) given by (this is a piecewise function)f(z) = 0 if z < -11/2 if -1 <= z < 11/2 + 1/4(z-1 if 1 <= z < 21 if 2 <= z This is impossible. The integral of a probability density function over its entire domain must be 1. You obviously can't have "f(z)= 1 if 2<= z". It also cannot be a cumulative probabililty distribution which was my next guess. I have no idea what is intended here. well no expert here but to sight P(Y=2) shouldn't you integrate f(z) over (-infinity,2]? Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=198574 Probability and graphs.. Sun, 25 Nov 2007 19:10:12 -0500 Can anyone back up me solve this problem?Taking a random graph G=(V,E) of n vertices such that V is any set of size n. V={1,2,...,n}. For any two distinct vertices: v1,v2 belong to G the advance (v1,v2) belongs to E with probability p and does not be to it with probability q=1-p where 0oo. Thanks. (1)because we undergo to ensure that none of the vertices in is connected to a vertex which is not in and we do away with the conditions that has to be connected. Now assume that the connected component of with minimal request has request Then since any two connected components are disjoints it follows that there can be no more than one connected component whicn means that is disconnected if and only if there exist a be the number of connected components with request It follows from above that the probability that From this measure move it is clear that which means that the probability that as desired. I wish for not too many mistakes. Pierre. The argument given above goes a good deal advance than was asked by the problem (down to ). Actually. I think you can get all the way drink to by making a few small adjustments to it (apply: prove that for the graph is almost surely NOT connected)When is fixed you can alter the argument by making the following observation:To show is connected it suffices to show that every pair of vertices has a common neighbor. As far as I bequeath the sign result from Erdös and Rényi states that for any pertinent function is connected (which means that the probabilty that it is connected converges to ) and almost every graph with You cannot affix new topics in this forumYou cannot reply to topics in this forumYou cannot edit your posts in this forumYou cannot delete your posts in this forumYou cannot choose in polls in this forumYou cannot connect files in this forumYou can download files in this forumYou cannot post calendar events in this forum Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://www.mathlinks.ro/Forum/viewtopic.php?t=174941 Probability Wed, 07 Nov 2007 19:01:53 -0500 A statistician went fishing and noticed that the masses of the look for he caught could be modeled with a normal distribution. He noticed that the Tuna had a mean mass of 22kg with a standard deviation of 3kg. The Kingfish had a convey of 20kg and standard deviation of 4kg. A fish of 22kg is caught; which fish is it more likely to be--A Tuna or a Kingfish?Well upon reading the question i automatically thought the Tuna since the tuna on average are 22kg and the standard deviation is 3kg so they are generally closer to their mean than the Kingfish. Is the challenge really that simple or should i be looking deeper into it? well the thing is that it can be both both have a probability that it is 22kg but if you ask me i'll say it is the tuna and if the question is about probability then is is a 1 in 2 chances for both fishes.(visit my blog!) Actually. I would think this is a "conditional probability" problem and you would undergo to experience the relative numbers of look for in the area! However since that information is not given it looks more like an "estimation of parameters' problem: Given the mean charge of a sample of fish estimate the adjust mean charge. The simplest is the maximum likelyhood estimate: which adjust mean weight gives the highest probability of getting that consume? Here the sample is just one look for but obviously if the true mean weight were 22kg that would make the probability of catching a fish of that weight higher than if you used 20kg as mean weight. Since the "maximum likelyhood calculate" is 22 kg the fish caught is more likely to be a tuna than a kingfish- the obvious answer anyway. Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=183769 A note on the Harmonic law: A two-parameter family of ... Tue, 30 Oct 2007 22:28:28 -0500 believe two-parameter statistical models for positive continuous observations. Suppose that these models are closed under dress of scale and under reciprocals properties that are very appropriate when the observations are ratios of positive magnitudes. Additionally suppose that the maximum likelihood estimator of the population mean is the sample convey (Gauss's principle). Surprisingly only one statistical copy satisfies these three properties and this is a special case of the generalized inverse gaussian family of distributions known as Harmonic Law. say to users: The section "Articles in touch" contains peer reviewed accepted articles to be published in this journal. When the final article is assigned to an air of the journal the "Article in touch" version will be removed from this divide and will appear in the associated published journal issue. The date it was first made available online ordain be carried over. Please be aware that although "Articles in touch" do not have all bibliographic details available yet they can already be cited using the year of online publication and the DOI as follows: compose(s). Article Title. Journal (Year). DOI. gratify consult the journal's reference style for the exact appearance of these elements abbreviation of journal names and the use of punctuation. Uncorrected proofs: these are write edited and formatted articles that are not yet finalized and that ordain be corrected by the authors. Therefore the text could change before final publication. Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=GatewayURL&_origin=IRSSCONTENT&_method=citationSearch&_piikey=S0167715207002441&_version=1&md5=0c0c0dfefb17339a867f848c258d5142 Probability, Statistics, and The Talpiot Tomb Thu, 25 Oct 2007 23:26:16 -0500 Mark Elliott and Kevin Kilty have written an act that will figure importantly in the ongoing consider about the Talpiot Tomb. . It’s a PDF so if you undergo not yet installed Adobe’s reader you will be to. It’s an extraordinarily detailed. 28 summon report which concludes that “ While we are unsure of the correctness of Feuerverger’s come to statistical analysis of the Talpiot Tomb we do agree with his conclusion that the Talpiot Tomb is significant by virtue of its improbability Intriguing indeed. The saga continues… XHTML: You can use these tags: Forex Groups - Tips on Trading Related article: http://drjimwest.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/probability-statistics-and-the-talpiot-tomb/